Workshop 1

A robust, practical, and auditable methodology for assessing geothermal risk and uncertainty is essential for making sound business decisions, defining an appropriate level of WACC, and establishing effective risk mitigation measures. The proposed workshop builds on mature E&P risk frameworks, adapted to address the specific complexities of geothermal projects arising from geological, technical, operational, regulatory, and commercial factors. In particular, the course is grounded in the Reverse Enthalpy Methodology, as presented in the paper Risk and Uncertainty in Geothermal Projects: Characteristics, Challenges and Application of the Novel Reverse Enthalpy Methodology (https://www.mdpi.com/3436508 ). Participants will learn how to identify, structure, quantify, and manage the uncertainties that most strongly influence project viability and financial performance. The course combines core principles with hands-on tools and workflows covering the entire project lifecycle—from exploration and concept selection to drilling, testing, and field development—while emphasizing transparency and full traceability of assumptions and data sources.

Workshop Programme
The workshop is structured into four main modules. Each module is delivered in a keynote-style format and complemented, where appropriate, by practical discussion and short hands-on exercises.

1. Framing Risk and Uncertainty in Geothermal Projects
Duration: approximately 1 hour

This opening module introduces the overall context of risk and uncertainty assessment in geothermal projects. It establishes a common language, key definitions, and a structured workflow for risk-based project evaluation, providing the foundation for the rest of the workshop.

2. Geological and Model Risk, and the Use of Favorability Mapping
Duration: approximately 1.5 hours
This module focuses on the identification and structuring of geological uncertainty, the definition and treatment of model risk, and the practical use of favorability mapping to support exploration and development decisions. Emphasis is placed on transparent reasoning and auditable workflows.

3. The “Not Enough” Problem: Quantifying Temperature and Deliverability Risk
Duration: approximately 1.5 hours
This session addresses the quantitative assessment of the risk that a geothermal resource may prove insufficient in terms of temperature and/or well productivity. It includes a short practical exercise on constructing a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for geothermal fluid temperature, as a basis for uncertainty quantification and decision support.

4. Linking Probability of Success to Economic KPIs: the REM (Reverse Enthalpy Methodology)
Duration: approximately 1 hour
The final module shows how technical probability of success can be linked to economic performance indicators such as NPV and IRR. The session introduces the REM (Reverse Enthalpy Methodology) as a structured framework for integrating technical and economic risk into project evaluation and decision-making.

Participant Profile

This workshop is primarily aimed at geoscientists, public authorities, and decision-makers seeking an introduction to this complex topic. More broadly, it is intended for anyone involved in applying, reviewing, or making decisions based on the quantitative assessment of risk and uncertainty in geothermal projects, and who therefore requires a clear understanding of the underlying evaluation methods.